Methodologist as Arbitrator Five Models for Black-White Differences in the Causal Effect of Expectations on Attainment

When progress in applied research slows because opposing coalitions of investigators privilege their favored models, methodologists can contribute by addressing a tractable unresolved question that is relevant to all competing positions. In this article, the literature on educational attainment is addressed, broadly by focusing on alternative positions on the need to model students’ own beliefs and more narrowly by attempting to answer a classic question that emerged in debates over the power of status attainment approaches: Why is the relationship between educational expectations and subsequent educational attainment weaker for Blacks than for Whites? Five complementary models of the causal effect of expectations on attainment are offered: a traditional path model, an average effects instrumental variable model, a counterfactual analysis of bounds, a rational expectations forecasting model, and a panel data model of updated expectations.